Western World Alarmed by China’s New Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Test
KAZI ABUL MONSUR, JOURNALIST#
In recent times, amidst rising military tensions and conflicts with the United States over the South China Sea, Taiwan, and the Asia-Pacific region, China has been increasing and deploying its strategic weapons. Notably, on September 25, China created a significant stir on the international stage by conducting a test of a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) over the Pacific Ocean. During this test, China’s Strategic Missile Forces unit fired a missile, targeting a mock enemy with a dummy warhead.
Although China did not officially disclose the specific missile series tested, international military experts believe that China likely tested its most powerful weapon, the Dongfeng-41 (DF-41) intercontinental ballistic missile. Chinese state media claims that this strategic missile test was conducted in accordance with international law and as per their planned strategy. However, Japan has accused China of failing to provide any prior warning before the missile test.
The last significant missile test by China occurred in May 1998, when they successfully tested the Dongfeng-5 (DF-5) ICBM with a range of 9,000 kilometers, causing widespread attention. Currently, the DF-41, with a range of 15,000 kilometers, is considered the most powerful long-range intercontinental ballistic missile in China’s arsenal. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China likely possesses over a thousand nuclear-capable missiles of various ranges and series.
According to a 2023 intelligence report from the U.S. Department of Defense (Pentagon), China has emerged as the fastest-growing nuclear power in the world. The Pentagon estimates that China currently has around 500 or slightly more nuclear and thermonuclear warheads, a number expected to exceed 1,000 by 2030.
Several international military think tanks have provided varying estimates of China’s nuclear arsenal over time. However, the Chinese government has never publicly disclosed specific details about its nuclear capabilities. Most international reports on China’s military power are based on estimates. Nevertheless, it is clear that the Chinese government, under Xi Jinping, is investing billions of dollars in modernizing and upgrading its nuclear weapons and long- and intermediate-range missile systems.
For 2024, China allocated a military budget of $231.36 billion, a 7.2% increase over the previous year. However, predictions from the International Institute for Strategic Studies suggest that China may spend as much as $439 billion by the end of 2024 to enhance its military capabilities. Due to the strict control over Chinese state media, gaining a clear picture of China’s military spending and actual capacity is extremely difficult.
China’s grand strategy is to become a global superpower by 2040, and it is working meticulously to revamp its nuclear weapons and strategic missile forces. In particular, China has been rapidly increasing the number of its nuclear-capable long- and intermediate-range missiles, along with spending heavily on modernizing their technology.
Despite the lack of transparency from China, it is estimated that the PLA’s Strategic Missile Force controls around 6,000 nuclear-capable tactical and strategic missiles of various ranges and capabilities. This includes approximately 30-40 of the latest generation DF-41 ICBMs, each capable of carrying up to 10 new-generation MIRV (Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicle) nuclear warheads. Additionally, China likely has a stockpile of around 2,000 nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic and hypersonic missiles.
The information available regarding China’s nuclear arsenal and strategic missile capabilities, although based largely on estimates, is generally considered reliable, though it may be somewhat higher or lower than the actual numbers. Nevertheless, this data reflects a plausible approximation of China’s growing nuclear and strategic missile strength.