Israel, Iran, Lebanon war. Is the third world war ahead?

KAZI ABUL MONSUR#

“Just launching attacks won’t be enough; the first strike must be on nuclear facilities. If they can hit those, Iran’s backbone will be broken.” In the midst of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, former U.S. President Donald Trump offered this advice to Israel.

At an election rally in North Carolina on Friday, Donald Trump brought up the recent conflict between Israel and Iran. He addressed Israel directly, saying, “Iran won’t back down until Israel attacks their nuclear facilities.” Trump emphasized that to teach Iran a lesson, Israel should strike their nuclear sites immediately.

The people of Israel had not heard so many sirens for a long time. From all directions came the sound: “Israel has attacked Iran.” In groups, people are rushing to take shelter in bunkers. Across Israel, preparations for bunker construction are underway. The people of Israel are ensuring they can collectively take refuge in bunkers. Fear and anxiety are evident in everyone’s eyes and faces.

The day Iran launched about 200 missiles was a time of terror and fear for the people of Israel. In the darkness of night, waves of Iranian missiles sliced through the sky. Israelis had not witnessed such scenes in a long time. The ground occasionally shook from the sound of explosions. This was the situation in large parts of Israel. While the Jewish state was gripped with fear, celebrations erupted in Iran’s cities, including Tehran, Arak, and Qom. The missile attack on the night of October 1, 2024, quickly made headlines in global media, shocking even the most powerful nations of the world.

The question arises: is the world, especially South Asia, on the brink of another major war? Many worry that global superpowers might gradually get involved in the conflict. On one side, the United States stands by Israel, along with a coalition of allies including France and Australia, who have vocally condemned the attack. On the other hand, Russia has reassured Iran, saying, “We stand by you.” Now, both Lebanon and Iran are entangled in Israel’s conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel has even started a ground war with Lebanon, and there are fears that this conflict could spiral into something much worse.

Iran targeted Tel Aviv, launching around 200 missiles to make its presence felt. While Israel claims that its famous air defense system, the ‘Iron Dome,’ was active, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard countered that 90% of their missiles hit their intended targets, bypassing the Iron Dome.

Meanwhile, Israel has initiated attacks on Lebanon, particularly targeting Hezbollah. In late September 2024, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah intensified, with Israeli forces launching a ground assault in southern Lebanon and conducting multiple airstrikes on Hezbollah’s military bases. The aim was to destroy Hezbollah’s infrastructure, especially tunnels and missile-launching sites, which posed a threat to Israel. Israel continues to assassinate senior Hezbollah leaders, and in response, Hezbollah’s attacks have also escalated. Several Hezbollah leaders were reportedly killed in Israeli attacks in early October 2024, further intensifying the conflict. Israel is preparing for a larger ground offensive in southern Lebanon.

The conflict between Israel and Lebanon is not new. For years, Israel has targeted Lebanon, turning parts of the country into rubble. Various diplomatic efforts have been made, but they have not been able to stop Israel’s aggression. Sources suggest that diplomatic initiatives have been undertaken several times to stop the ongoing conflict between Israel and Lebanon. The United States and other international powers, including the United Nations, are attempting to mediate and de-escalate the situation. Recently, there were discussions about a 21-day ceasefire plan to create space for diplomatic solutions. The U.S. has been trying to ease tensions between Hezbollah and Israel because the prospect of a full-scale war could lead to a severe regional crisis.

Although a diplomatic solution between Israel and Lebanon seems possible, it remains highly complex due to the deep-seated hostility between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as the regional geopolitical dynamics. Despite the efforts of international powers like the U.S. and the U.N. to end the war and enforce a ceasefire, the long-standing distrust and animosity between the two sides make this resolution difficult. However, if the pressure and mediation are effective enough, there is potential for either a temporary ceasefire or a more permanent solution. While no specific date has been set for direct peace talks between Israel and Lebanon, efforts are underway by international actors like the U.N. and the U.S. to initiate ceasefires and discussions. Given the current conflict situation, immediate talks seem unlikely, though mediation efforts continue.

The history of war between Israel and Lebanon is complex and longstanding, rooted in the broader Israeli-Arab conflict, the Palestinian refugee crisis, and the rise of Hezbollah. After Israel’s establishment in 1948, Arab nations declared war against it, and Lebanon joined the fight. As a result of Israel’s creation, thousands of Palestinian refugees sought asylum in Lebanon, causing political instability there. In 1982, Israel invaded southern Lebanon to defeat the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), which was using the area as a base against Israel. Israel advanced to Beirut, leading to violence in Palestinian refugee camps, including the Sabra and Shatila massacres. Though Israeli forces withdrew from much of Lebanon in 1985, they maintained control over parts of southern Lebanon, which contributed to the rise of Hezbollah. Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Shia group, emerged as a resistance movement against Israel. After 1985, Hezbollah led resistance efforts against Israeli forces and their allies in southern Lebanon. In 2006, after Hezbollah abducted Israeli soldiers, Israel launched a large-scale attack on Lebanon, which lasted about 34 days and caused widespread destruction. Both Israel and Hezbollah suffered significant losses, and a ceasefire was brokered by the U.N. at the war’s end, though tensions remained high.

Hezbollah is now Israel’s biggest security threat in Lebanon. Backed by Iran, it has conducted numerous military operations against Israel, playing a key role in the 2006 Lebanon war. Israel believes that Hezbollah’s weapons stockpile and Iranian support pose a grave threat to regional stability and its own security. Therefore, Israel is determined to neutralize Hezbollah, targeting its leaders, military installations, and arms depots.

As always, the U.S. has stood by Israel in its time of need. President Joe Biden has instructed American forces to protect Tel Aviv and destroy every Iranian missile. The U.S. Navy’s destroyers have also been activated. Israel and the U.S. claim that Russia had a direct role in the missile attacks. Shortly after Israel was attacked, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened an emergency cabinet meeting, warning, “Iran made a big mistake. It will have to pay the price.” In response, the Iranian parliament speaker warned, “The next attack will be in a format Israel can’t even imagine.” Russia has also sided with Iran, criticizing the U.S. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Telegram, “The Biden administration’s policy in West Asia has failed. Thousands have died because of Antony Blinken’s incompetence.” With two major powers aligned against each other, the question is: where is the world headed next?## [email protected]